Germ-X and Toilet Paper
Fear. There’s a lot of it out there right now. I went in to Wal-Mart yesterday morning to buy a pair of Dr. Sholl’s shoe inserts. I picked up the shoe inserts, and on a whim, I went over to the aisle to see how much Germ-X was on the shelf. There was none, even though the truck had been in the previous night and the Associate standing next to me had been the one to stock the shelf. As I was standing there talking to the Wal-Mart Associate, a lady came up and wanted to know where the toilet paper had been moved. The Associate replied that it had not been moved, it was where it had always been on the shelf. The lady replied, “Well, you’re out of toilet paper.” Fear.
Most of you know that between my Active, Guard, and Reserve service, I wore the uniform of the Army of our country for almost 30 years. Serving as a staff member at both the battalion and brigade level, those of us on staff would state that fear is the most contagious thing known to man. Winnable battles have been lost because of it. Right now, this fear can be viewed on our TV every evening when we get home.
“You can take the boy out of the Army, but you can’t take the Army out of the boy.” This has been true for me since this mess in the market started. Steve and I are building our “Pre-Planned Target List” of investments. We are reviewing the opportunities presenting themselves because of what is going on in the market. The opportunity to execute and buy will be coming. When it does, we are going to be buyers in the market. There is nothing immoral, illegal, or unethical with taking advantage of somebody else’s fear. We did not impact their decision, they chose to sell, and we will choose to buy.
Here is an except from the Raymond James Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy Updates from March 12, 2020:
“bear market bottoms are violent. On average, prices are up 15% within 30-days and 21% within 60-days. The news is typically still negative asthe market rallies. The negative headlines are likely to leave investors believing the market will go down again and keeps them on the sidelines. Getting out is easy, getting back in is more difficult.”
This is a healthcare scare. At least, that is how it started, and then you had Saudi Arabia and Russia get into an economic tug-of-war over the price of oil per barrel and production levels. Our country is energy independent and we do not need the oil from Russia or Saudi Arabia. They’re fighting over what’s left of the energy pie.
I think that one of the wisest quotes that I have ever heard is “This too shall pass.”
On top of all that we deal with in life, this is still the flu season. Wash your hands and take the normal flu precautions that you practice each and every year during flu season. And don’t worry, I am confident that Wal-Mart will address the current temporary shortage they have in Germ-X and toilet paper. All will be well.
- Doug
Any opinions are those of Doug Brown and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. The information contained
in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
